Prediction for two-horses race elections

With the presidential election only one day away, here in USA is the season of political mudslinging AND predictions.

A friend asks me why I do not make election predictions.  I had learned my lesson through someone else.

In the year 2000 Gore vs. Bush presidential election, a world famous Feng Shui master had predicted Al Gore the winner.  S/he was embarrassed  for the wrong prediction and had made up a preposterous reason like s/he was testing the universe.....

It was no big deal or gain even s/he had made the right prediction.  A two-horses race with 50/50 chance does not give many brownie points to one's resume.  But one may look like an idiot when making the wrong pick.

I don't mean that you should stay away from making public predictions, just do not do these 50/50 chance predictions.  Let a monkey or an octopus do it.

Take for another example, at the beginning of this year, a TV Feng Shui magazine (in English) had interviewed quite a few Feng Shui masters to make predictions for the year of Dragon. 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=reW9XmH06ec

One of the questions was on the two-horses race election of Hong Kong Chief Executive.  Another two world famous Feng Shui masters predicted pro-Beijing candidate Henry Tong will get elected.  One was so sure that he had quantified a 99% chance of winning.

I would have picked Henry Tong at that time based on the news that China favored Tong.  But a mistress scandal from Tong was uncovered after this TV show was aired.  The scandal had turned Tong from a hot candidate to a hot potato for China.

These two world famous masters had lost their bet on this 50/50 prediction.  The less scandalous candidate CY Leung was elected.

Unforeseen or unexpected events can easily turn a sure bet prediction upside down.

One of these two masters has predicted that Obama will win this year.  Let's keep our fingers crossed.


Ken Lai

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